Lagarde's Guarded comments on Economic Recovery

On Andrew Marr’s programme last Sunday Christine Lagard expressed the view that the UK economy is in recovery.  She noted that the situation has changed since she expressed caution about the recovery a few months ago, but she did quality her view.  The UK’s recovery is not based only on consumer spending and rising house prices, but also the UK is attracting investment.  The UK is attracting investment because its economy is doing a little better than most.

In the last couple of days increased employment has been reported, the number of people working in the UK is officially 30million for the first time, but how is this determined ?  In earlier posts on this Blog I’ve shown how much the Government relies on estimates.  Official figures are guesstimates, probably optimistic guesstimates.

They are not full time or full time equivalent posts, this includes those working part time, zero hours contracts, etc. and may still include those gaining work experience, paid or unpaid.  Certainly recently these were counted as ‘employed’, as far as I am aware many or all still are.

More people are self-employed.  There are people who choose to be self-employed; tradespeople and entrepreneurs, but there are also those for who self-employment is a last resort or a convenience for employers who have work to offer, but choose to employ people on a freelance basis rather than recruiting full or part time employees.  For some self-employment may be the realisation of an entrepreneurial vision that will also generate employment for others, for some a decent income, but for others the market for their skills and knowledge may produce only limited opportunities to work.  How many who formerly enjoyed the security of a salaried post and a defined role now work intermittently as consultants for £10,000, or less, a year ?

 

The recovery is still unbalanced and uncertain, and employment growth outside the South East and London has yet to significantly pick up.